In global health, some projects are about delivering a product. Others are about helping decision-makers amidst rapid change.

Since 2020, Eureka has partnered with the WHO on the Annual Access to Medicine and Diagnostics Services (AMDS) LMIC Forecast for HIV, hepatitis, and syphilis diagnostics. The forecast analyses diagnostic procurement trends across more than 100 low- and middle-income countries and uses a mathematical model to show a way forward for manufacturers, donors, funders, health agencies and implementers. This project serves as an important tool for understanding procurement trends, anticipating future demand, and supporting planning across the global diagnostics landscape.

But the environment in 2025 was anything but familiar. Funding landscapes shifted rapidly. Long-standing assumptions were questioned. Across the HIV sector, organisations sought to understand what these changes would mean for procurement and the people who rely on essential health services.

As Eureka member Yvette Kruger explained, there was “a need to create some sort of stability or certainty in rapidly changing circumstances.”

More Than Data

When Yvette Kruger and Kristina Grabbe took on leadership of the project, they brought decades of experience in HIV, sexual and reproductive health, diagnostics, and global health programming. They stepped into a project with significant responsibility and visibility during a particularly dynamic moment for the global health sector.

Rather than being deterred by the complexity of the work, they approached it with curiosity, flexibility, and a commitment to collaboration.

Behind the scenes, the project brought together a small but highly collaborative team. Yvette and Kristina brought complementary experience across HIV, diagnostics, implementation, and stakeholder engagement, helping connect quantitative findings to broader programmatic realities. The wider team provided critical database analysis and modelling, data analysis, and technical guidance, particularly around hepatitis diagnostics and market access. The report was presented at the annual AMDS network meeting in September, 2025. The team combined diverse expertise around a shared goal: supporting stakeholders in making decisions amidst change.

Most importantly, changes were unprecedented and unfolding faster than traditional forecasting methods could fully capture. As Yvette explained, “the methodology by which we had previously created the forecast was not as applicable as before because the data had shifted and was likely to continue changing, but was not yet represented in data that we could incorporate.“

The team combined quantitative modelling with stakeholder engagement, literature reviews, market intelligence, and continuous monitoring of developments across the global health sector. The goal was not simply to project future demand, but to understand how evolving funding realities might affect programmes, procurement decisions, and diagnostic markets. The answer was not found in a spreadsheet; it was found in discussion. Team members challenged assumptions, shared perspectives, and created space for continuous sense-making as new information emerged.

As Kristina reflected, “We bounced questions off each other, our team, partners, and key stakeholders… and worked through things together as they evolved.”

The Strength of Working Together

Every project encounters challenges. According to Kristina, “the biggest challenge was trying to interpret how rapidly changing funding and procurement dynamics could influence future diagnostic demand, during a time that felt particularly erratic.” The apprehension was not limited to the project team. “Everyone was dealing with the same kind of uncertainty,” she noted.

Funding announcements changed assumptions that had underpinned previous forecasts. Information evolved in real time. Decisions that would normally rely on established trends suddenly required judgment calls and careful interpretation.

For many teams, that level of ambiguity might have slowed progress, but for this Eureka team, it became another reason to lean on one another. Despite the pressure, team members remained aligned around a shared commitment to quality, collaboration, and impact.

Both Yvette and Kristina summarised it simply: “Teamwork is what we used.”

The forecast remains important, helping manufacturers understand future demand, supporting planning, and contributing to decision-making in health systems. While no forecast could fully capture the pace of change across the sector, the work provided stakeholders with a structured, evidence-informed view of potential procurement trajectories. Perhaps more important than the forecast itself was the iterative methodology the team developed to cope with the circumstances. Using stakeholder engagement and pressure-testing scenarios, which underpinned modelling widely, they found a more engaged method of forecasting.

The findings pointed to potential areas of resilience, including multiplex testing, lower-cost diagnostic strategies, local manufacturing, and self-testing models.

A Reflection of the Eureka Community

Perhaps the most compelling part of this story is that it reflects something much larger than a single project. Eureka is built on the belief that complex challenges are best solved through collective effort. This project demonstrated that principle in practice. Members from different backgrounds and areas of expertise came together around a shared purpose. They navigated ambiguity, adapted to changing circumstances, and delivered work that continues to inform decision-making across the global health sector.

To read more compelling project spotlights and the amazing humans, visit www.eurekaidea.co